Elon Musk: “If we're lucky, we've probably got about a 50% chance of…”

“So test nine of starship. Yes. If this goes well and all goes well, how soon before we can do a first uncrewed trip to Mars? If we're lucky, we've probably got about a 50% chance of sending ships from Earth to Mars at the end of next year. So November, December, next year, in about 18 months. Wow. Is that realistic or is that Elon time? Well, I try to give the 50th percentile you should expect half the time I'm wrong.” (04:21–04:27)

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